According to a recent POF poll, most Russians (55%) regard the approaching State Duma elections as a significant event, while about one-third (30%) do not attach great importance to this event, and 14% have no opinion on the issue.

Most Russians see the upcoming parliamentary elections as an event that primarily concerns “big policy” rather than daily life. Most people (59%) have a strong belief that the election results will have no effect on the lives of ordinary people, while 13% expect positive changes, 3% anticipate negative consequences, and 25% had difficulty answering the question.

Russians who reported having “always” or “often” voted (these “active voters”56% of the sample) are more likely than others to attach importance to the 2007 election campaign: 67% of them consider the parliamentary elections a significant event, and 21% disagree. Yet just like other citizens, most active voters (51%) don’t expect the elections to radically change their lives. Sixteen percent of Russians do anticipate some positive changes, 3% expect negative changes, and 30% were unable to make any predictions.

Optimistic expectations include general hopes for the future (3%) and more specific wishes, such as improvements in one’s personal financial situation (2%). Another 2% suggest that the results of the State Duma vote might further improve the country’s economy and political situation. Some respondents believe the election promises made by candidates (1%), while others associate their hopes with a probable victory of the United Russia party (1%).

Those assuming that the State Duma elections will have a negative impact on the lives of average people mostly meant the lack of any positive changes. This is at least how we should interpret the arguments expressed as responses to an open-ended question. Some respondents said that “the deputies are not interested in the people and do not protect their interests,” while others strongly doubted the promises made by candidates.

Nearly two-thirds of Russians (63%) suggest that United Russia will win most of the vote. Seventy percent of active voters share this opinion. Groups of 2% each are betting on KPRF, LDPR and Fair Russia, and 1% expect the Union of Right Forces or the Agrarian Party to see success at the polls.

Russian opinions on elections as a political instrument of the people’s will are very contradictory. The prevailing opinion has been that elections do not reflect public opinion. Thirty-seven percent suggest the opposite, and 16% have no opinion on the issue. This division of opinions has been found very stable over the past three months (when the first survey on this issue was carried out in April 2003, the proponents of the former view slightly outnumbered their opponents at 44% vs. 42%).

Active voters are not unanimous on that issue either, yet the division of opinions is contrary to what we have seen in the sample: 47% believe that elections reflect public opinion, and 38% disagree.

Irina Shmerlina

How often do you vote: always, often, rarely or never?

Some believe that elections reflect public opinion, while others say they don't. Which of these two views is closest to your own?

	…always	…often	…rarely	…never

The next State Duma elections will take place in December 2007. Some people regard parliamentary elections as an event of national significance, while others view it as an insifnificant event. Which of these two views comes closest to your own?

	…always	…often	…rarely	…never

Please take a look a the question card and select the party you think will get the most votes at at the next State Duma elections in 2007. (One response is possible.)

	…always	…often	…rarely	…never

Will the results of the December 2007 parliamentary elections have any effect on the lives of ordinary people? If so, will this effect be positive or negative?

	…always	…often	…rarely	…never

How often do you vote: always, often, rarely or never?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	23	8	47	53	36	37	27	14	35	33	18	21	28	25	8	12	17	38	25	20
always	36	41	30	27	30	40	19	39	55	41	29	38	40	41	47	33	35	29	29	34	45	26
often	20	22	19	12	20	21	17	24	19	18	20	21	20	20	20	23	16	22	21	20	20	15
rarely	27	23	34	25	28	25	34	26	16	23	28	28	26	27	19	28	29	31	28	27	23	29
never	15	11	15	36	19	12	24	11	9	14	20	12	13	10	11	15	17	15	20	17	9	25
hard to answer	2	2	2	0	3	2	5	0	2	3	3	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	3	2	2	5

Some believe that elections reflect public opinion, while others say they don't. Which of these two views is closest to your own?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	23	8	47	53	36	37	27	14	35	33	18	21	28	25	8	12	17	38	25	20
first	37	46	29	16	35	39	40	37	34	33	38	38	38	36	42	35	25	38	37	38	40	38
second	46	39	57	66	48	45	42	52	46	37	45	49	52	47	42	53	57	46	49	45	44	48
hard to answer	16	15	14	17	17	16	18	12	20	30	17	14	10	17	16	11	16	16	14	17	16	14

The next State Duma elections will take place in December 2007. Some people regard parliamentary elections as an event of national significance, while others view it as an insifnificant event. Which of these two views comes closest to your own?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	23	8	47	53	36	37	27	14	35	33	18	21	28	25	8	12	17	38	25	20
first	55	64	46	38	52	59	54	53	60	56	54	55	57	58	60	52	36	54	55	56	62	55
second	30	24	39	49	33	28	31	33	26	18	33	32	32	27	27	37	42	30	33	32	22	30
hard to answer	14	12	15	13	16	13	15	14	14	26	13	13	11	15	13	11	22	16	11	12	17	14

Please take a look a the question card and select the party you think will get the most votes at at the next State Duma elections in 2007. (One response is possible.)

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	23	8	47	53	36	37	27	14	35	33	18	21	28	25	8	12	17	38	25	20
United Russia	63	70	60	42	64	62	65	66	55	44	62	66	72	58	65	68	61	70	56	65	62	70
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)	2	2	3	5	4	1	1	2	5	6	2	2	0	2	4	2	2	2	2	3	3	0
The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)	2	2	2	9	3	1	3	2	1	4	3	2	0	4	1	3	1	1	3	3	1	1
Fair Russia: Homeland/Pensioners/Life	2	2	2	1	1	3	2	2	2	1	3	2	1	3	3	1	1	1	3	2	2	1
The Agrarian Party of Russia	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	0
The Union of Right Forces (SPS)	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	1
Yabloko	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
another party	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
hard to answer	29	23	31	42	26	31	27	27	35	44	28	26	26	32	26	25	34	26	33	27	30	27

Will the results of the December 2007 parliamentary elections have any effect on the lives of ordinary people? If so, will this effect be positive or negative?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	23	8	47	53	36	37	27	14	35	33	18	21	28	25	8	12	17	38	25	20
there will be no effect	59	51	71	73	60	58	57	59	60	58	61	57	58	52	61	60	59	65	63	56	56	58
positive effect	13	17	6	3	13	12	14	13	10	10	13	13	14	12	13	15	19	12	12	13	10	15
negative effect	3	3	4	5	3	3	4	4	2	2	3	3	4	4	3	4	3	2	1	5	3	3
hard to say whether there will be any effect or not	14	16	11	9	13	15	13	14	16	16	14	16	10	18	11	12	9	13	14	15	16	12
hard to say whether the effect will be significant or insignificant	11	13	9	10	11	12	12	10	12	14	9	12	14	13	12	8	11	8	10	11	16	12

POF database > Dominants. Opinion Field > Dominants 33 August 16, 2007 > Views on Elections > Views on Elections