According to a recent POF poll, an eighty-six percent majority of Russians are aware that President Vladimir Putin’s second term will expire in 2008. Another 12% heard something about it, and only 2% learned about this fact from the interviewer.

What kind of changes do Russians expect in the country after Mr. Putin leaves the presidential office? Six percent expect positive changes, 30% anticipate negative changes, and 37% suggest things will more or less remain the same as before.

The positive changes that people think may occur after President Putin’s retirement include social improvements (healthcare, education, housing – 3%) and improvements in the national economy (2%). Another three percent anticipate an increase in salaries and pensions, and improvements in living standards in general. Groups of 1% each expect more stability and more efficient measures to be taken against corruption and crime. Some respondents (2%) suggest that improvements won’t happen unless the next leadership sticks to “Putin’s policy.”

In response to an open-ended question about negative changes that may result from a change in leadership, Russians say they mostly fear economic decline, which could manifest in: general instability, inflation, energy supply problems, tax increases and unemployment (7%). Three percent of Russians expect greater social cutbacks (“welfare mothers will receive less,” “benefits for disabled people may be canceled,” “people won’t get welfare”), while another 3% anticipate a decline in living standards and salaries. Four percent fear that upon Putin’s retirement, the country will be drained, and 3% think there might be a struggle for power and a political crisis. Two percent each fear destabilization and the criminalization of society. Three percent suggest that Putin’s departure may negatively affect Russia’s international prestige and lead to a serious deterioration in Russia’s relations with other nations (“a cold war”) or even armed conflicts (2%).

On the whole, one-half of Russians (46%) say they will regret Putin’s retirement, while exactly the same percentage have no feelings on the matter.

Most Russians (70%) tend to believe that Vladimir Putin will remain in politics after retirement (for example, he is expected to work in the government or in parliament, help the new president form a party etc.) Fourteen percent of those surveyed suggest that Putin will quit politics forever and do other things like get involved in business. Two-thirds of Russians (67%) would strongly approve of Putin’s continued presence and active role in politics, while one-quarter of Russians (27%) would have an indifferent reaction and 2% would have negative responses.

Yelena Vovk

In your opinion, does President Vladimir Putin's policy serve the interests of ordinary people?

To what extent do you like – or dislike – President Putin’s policy? Please take a look at the question card and select the statement that comes closest to your own view. (One response is possible).

	serves public interests	doesn't serve public interests

Do you know or have you heard that President Putin's presidential term will expire in 2008? Or is it the first time you've heard about it?

Do you expect more positive or more negative changes to occur in the country after Mr. Putin's retirement from the Russian presidency? Or do you think things will remain about the same as before?

	serves public interests	doesn't serve public interests

Do you have any feelings about President Putin's retirement from the Russian presidency?

	serves public interests	doesn't serve public interests

What do you expect Mr. Putin to do after retirement? Will he remain in politics, or will he do other things?

Would you have positive, negative or indifferent feelings if Vladimir Putin remained and became actively involved in politics?

	serves public interests	doesn't serve public interests

In your opinion, does President Vladimir Putin's policy serve the interests of ordinary people?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	24	8	46	54	37	36	27	14	36	32	19	21	28	26	8	12	17	38	25	21
it does	63	80	40	6	60	66	67	60	64	56	61	66	69	56	66	67	59	73	66	61	62	70
it doesn't	21	8	37	79	25	18	17	24	23	23	22	22	17	27	21	20	20	15	22	23	22	17
hard to answer	15	12	23	14	15	16	16	16	14	22	17	12	13	17	13	13	21	12	13	16	16	13

To what extent do you like – or dislike – President Putin’s policy? Please take a look at the question card and select the statement that comes closest to your own view. (One response is possible).

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	24	8	46	54	37	36	27	14	36	32	19	21	28	26	8	12	17	38	25	21
totally like	19	28	2	0	16	22	19	15	25	26	17	20	18	16	24	18	24	26	18	16	20	17
rather like	38	51	17	3	36	39	43	37	31	33	38	40	37	34	35	42	35	40	38	37	37	44
sometimes like, sometimes dislike	31	18	70	20	32	29	30	34	28	26	31	30	35	36	28	29	25	28	30	31	34	29
rather dislike	6	0	6	45	8	4	4	7	7	6	7	5	4	7	5	5	7	2	8	7	5	5
totally dislike	3	0	0	26	4	2	1	3	4	2	3	3	3	3	4	2	4	1	2	4	1	2
hard to answer	4	2	5	7	4	4	4	4	4	8	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	3	3	5	3	4

Do you know or have you heard that President Putin's presidential term will expire in 2008? Or is it the first time you've heard about it?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	24	8	46	54	37	36	27	14	36	32	19	21	28	26	8	12	17	38	25	21
I know	86	89	81	79	87	84	84	89	84	81	81	89	90	80	86	90	89	83	87	85	85	90
I've heard about it	12	10	16	15	11	13	13	9	14	12	15	9	9	15	13	8	10	13	12	12	11	9
this is the first time I've heard about it	2	1	2	6	2	3	3	1	2	6	3	1	0	4	2	2	1	3	1	2	4	1
hard to answer	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0

Do you expect more positive or more negative changes to occur in the country after Mr. Putin's retirement from the Russian presidency? Or do you think things will remain about the same as before?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	24	8	46	54	37	36	27	14	36	32	19	21	28	26	8	12	17	38	25	21
more positive changes	6	5	7	9	5	6	5	6	6	4	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3	6	5	7	5
things will remain about the same as before	37	33	47	48	43	32	37	43	32	32	39	38	39	36	37	34	49	29	43	36	37	40
more negative changes	30	37	21	9	25	35	30	27	36	34	26	32	32	31	31	33	19	35	28	32	30	27
hard to answer	27	25	25	34	26	27	29	24	26	30	29	24	24	27	25	27	26	32	24	26	26	27

Do you have any feelings about President Putin's retirement from the Russian presidency?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	24	8	46	54	37	36	27	14	36	32	19	21	28	26	8	12	17	38	25	21
I do	46	61	23	4	36	55	42	44	55	54	43	49	42	47	51	46	39	50	44	46	49	40
I don't	46	32	68	93	57	38	50	48	40	41	49	43	50	48	43	44	52	36	48	48	46	51
hard to answer	7	7	9	4	8	7	8	8	5	5	7	8	7	5	6	9	9	14	8	6	6	9

What do you expect Mr. Putin to do after retirement? Will he remain in politics, or will he do other things?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	24	8	46	54	37	36	27	14	36	32	19	21	28	26	8	12	17	38	25	21
he will remain in politics	70	73	70	65	71	70	67	75	70	63	72	71	71	70	70	73	71	68	68	71	72	68
he will quit politics and do other things	14	14	13	13	14	13	17	13	10	12	12	15	15	14	12	15	15	12	16	12	15	17
hard to answer	16	13	17	22	14	17	17	12	20	25	15	14	15	16	18	12	15	20	16	17	13	14

Would you have positive, negative or indifferent feelings if Vladimir Putin remained and became actively involved in politics?

Categories of respondents, %	100	65	24	8	46	54	37	36	27	14	36	32	19	21	28	26	8	12	17	38	25	21
positively	67	84	47	12	63	72	67	65	72	64	66	71	67	62	70	71	62	69	63	68	70	66
indifferently	27	14	45	66	31	23	29	29	21	27	27	25	28	31	21	25	34	25	29	26	25	30
negatively	2	0	1	15	3	1	1	2	3	2	2	1	2	2	3	2	3	2	3	2	2	1
hard to answer	4	2	7	7	4	4	4	4	5	6	5	3	3	5	5	3	1	4	5	5	3	3

POF database > Dominants. Opinion Field > Dominants 32 August 9, 2007 > Vladimir Putin after 2008: Predictions > Vladimir Putin after 2008: Predictions