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Our latest poll shows that 7% of voters are likely to vote for the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the upcoming parliamentary election. LDPR is, thus, way behind the two favorites - United Russia (20%) and KPRF (15%), but ahead of SPS and Yabloko (4% each).
Some 60% of respondents say their attitude towards LDPR hasn't significantly changed recently, while 29% report some changes, mostly for the worse (21%). However, this negative tendency probably will be irrelevant for LDPR's election chances, because it is not the party's `own' voters, but adherents of other parties (mostly KPRF) who `feel worse' about it. Among the Communist electorate, the proportion of positive and negative changes is 1:10 – 3% and 31% respectively. Zhirinovsky's adherents for the most part feel `better' or `as before' about their party.
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Total |
If you vote in the State Duma elections in December this year, which of the following parties are you most likely to support? |
|
United Russia |
KPRF |
LDPR |
SPS |
Yabloko |
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Speaking of your attitude toward LDPR, would you say it has changed, or not? if it has, is it now better or worse? |
|
Hasn't changed |
60 |
60 |
61 |
54 |
64 |
58 |
|
Better |
8 |
7 |
3 |
40 |
13 |
8 |
|
Worse |
21 |
24 |
31 |
1 |
14 |
23 |
|
Hard to answer |
11 |
8 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
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LDPR is the only large party in Russia that can be called a one-man party. In other words, voter attitudes towards it depend on how they feel about Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and not on whether they share the party's ideology. Normally, as shown by our earlier surveys, people don't even try to define LDPR's ideological profile. Discussion Focus Group (DFG) participants unanimously insist that there would be no Liberal Democratic Party without Zhirinovsky:
- "
Moderator: Is it good or bad for LDPR to have Zhirinovsky for its leader?
1st female participant: Of course it's good.
2nd participant: This party is nothing without Zhirinovsky.
3rd participant: It would simply have no face.
4th female participant: There would be no party without him" (DFG, Moscow).
- "LDPR is a one-man party: No Zhirinovsky – no party"
(DFG, Samara).
- "
Moderator: Is it good for LDPR that such a person is its leader?
1st participant: For LDPR it is good. Were it not for him, there would be no LDPR.
2nd female participant: Without Zhirinovsky, the party wouldn't be heard" (DFG, Samara).
The mass consciousness identifies LDPR with Vladimir Zhirinovsky. None of those surveyed could correctly name the top-three candidates from the party's list. While the overwhelming majority of respondents (69%) named Zhirinovsky, nobody named P. Chernov or À. Ostrovsky. However, 7% named A. Ìitrofanov and 2% named I. Lebedev, who are not among the top three.
- "
Moderator: Could you name the top-three candidates on the LDPR ticket?
1st female participant: Anyone could cite the top-line name, but I'm not sure about the rest.
Moderator: Well, go ahead.
2nd participant: Zhirinovsky.
1st female participant: He's always there, every holiday. Zhirinovsky defuses everything." (DFG, Novosibirsk).
- "
Moderator: Could you cite the top-three names on the LDPR ticket?
1st participant: Mitrofanov, Zhirinovsky.
2nd female participant: I know only two.
3rd participant: Yes, only these two.
4th female participant: Him and his son" (DFG, Samara).
As shown by our nationwide poll, about one-third of the population (32%, and 99% of LDPR backers) feel good about Vladimir Zhirinovsky, while 53% dislike him. Virtually all DFG participants say they like his forceful, resolute and combative character. On the one hand, this is rooted in the subconscious of Russians with their notorious love of the "strong hand". On the other hand, these are obviously the traits which many modern politicians lack.
Most respondents also acknowledge Zhirinovsky's outstanding intellectual capacity. Many DFG participants also note his negative qualities such as excessive emotion, hot temper, and inability to check himself (which results in his complete unpredictability), which in their opinion is absolutely unacceptable in a political figure:
- "I enjoy listening to him greatly. To my mind he is clever and intelligent. It's just that his temper makes me distrust him a little"
(DFG, Novosibirsk).
- "
1st participant: I think [Zhirinovsky] sometimes voices reasonable and practical ideas, but his ways are not fitting for a politician. He's too unreserved.
2nd female participant: I agree to some extent. He is a patriot of Russia. But his behavior is so inadequate at times that I think to myself, `he'd better curb his temper'. He's uninhibited and never checks himself. But I agree with him on many points" (DFG, Samara).
- "
1st female participant: I am against Zhirinovsky. He is capable of talking very reasonably, but he is also capable of talking nonsense... (DFG, Samara).
- "I think he is clever, but hot-tempered and unpredictable"
(DFG, Samara).
Some respondents suggested that Zhirinovsky may be mentally ill:
- "
Moderator: You say he's clever?
1st female participant: I believe he really is clever. I guess nobody disagrees on that. A man of such learning... and of such artistry... but he's probably also insane. In fact, quite a few clever people and scientists have schizophrenia.
Moderator: Do you believe he has schizophrenia?
1st female participant: I'm not sure, but maybe he has something of the kind.
2nd female participant: His way of conduct...
1st female participant: ... is very odd" (DFG, Moscow).
- "
1st female participant: There were times when this man seemed to have latent schizophrenia. This is not so visible today, but in the past, I often looked at him and thought, `He could do with a course of treatment'.
2nd participant: He loves making scandals; this is his way to attract the public's attention.
3rd female participant: His behavior can hardly be called adequate..." (DFG, Novosibirsk).
Respondents also dislike the unsteady political stance of Zhirinovsky:
- "Zhirinovsky can change his stand 180 degrees within a month? This shows he is not not a serious politician. You don't regard such a tail-wagger as trustworthy"
(DFG, Moscow).
- "
1st participant: He easily changes colors.
2nd participant: Some six years ago, I was watching a televised State Duma session. Zhirinovsky was against the bill at issue. In one of the next sessions, it was said that, unless the Duma passed the bill, it is going to be...
3rd female participant: ...dismissed.
2nd participant: He immediately changed his point of view and spoke for the bill. Now he is categorically against it, then he is categorically for it.
3rd female participant: That's typical of him. He is inconsistent" (DFG, Samara).
On the whole, even those who spoke favorably about Zhirinovsky in the DFG sessions are not necessarily his supporters as far as voting is concerned. Most respondents don't take him seriously as a politician. For them, he is just an entertainer in the Duma:
- "
1st participant: No, the State Duma wouldn't be quite the same without Zhirinovsky. It's quite a different show on television when Zhirinovsky stands up...
2nd female participant: You see, he indulges in manhandling at times, so he provides entertainment for the public.
3rd participant: It instantly lightens the mood" (DFG, Moscow).
- "
1st participant: Clearly, he's a clown.
2nd participant: ...and nothing more. Like a buffoon in the old times" (DFG, Moscow).
- "... I also associate my idea of LDPR with Zhirinovsky. I know neither their program nor their actions. Indeed, it's him with his ways who attracts attention first and foremost. He is a good orator and interesting to listen to. Just for fun. But I'd never vote for him"
(DFG, Novosibirsk).
Interestingly, while half of those polled believe LDPR has not changed over the ten years of its existence, one in five respondents (19%) think that it has. 7% of them say these are changes for the better, and 3% see changes for the worse. The positive changes they report mostly concern the party's leader:
- "Zhirinovsky has settled down and grown more clever. No sharp invectives anymore"; "his ways are not so provocative anymore"; "Zhirinovsky is now more serious, less scandalous. Indeed, he's a clever guy, he always talks to the point, and he talks straight from the shoulder"; "their leader is less aggressive now"
(open-ended question, 1% of responses).
Some poll participants (3%) say the party has grown stronger and more active and has gained numerous new backers:
- "It's grown more influential"; "it has acquired political experience"; "more order in the party"; "the party's prestige and influence have grown"
(open-ended question, 1% of responses).
- "It became more active"; "they expanded their activities all over the country"; "extending their structure"; "the party has doubled"
(open-ended question, 1% of responses).
- "The number of LDPR adherents has grown"; "more people now support them"; "they have more backers, even among elderly citizens, which shows that people trust him and respect his directness, which is common of Russians"
(open-ended question, 1% of responses).
According to the opinion of another 1% of respondents, LDPR cares more for the common people now:
- "They now pay attention to the people's problems"; "they do something for the people"; "their leader now talks to the people more than he did before"; "they grew closer to the people; they are the only party to write letters to citizens"
(responses to open-ended question).
Those who believe LDPR has changed for the worse over the past ten years noted the following:
- the party is less active now, substituting idle promises for real deeds: "more talk, less work"; "lots of promises, and no results"; "the party grew weaker and retreated into the shadows"; "inactive"; "one hears less from them" (open-ended question, 1% of responses).
- the party's members became more aggressive and scandalous: "the party has grown more impudent"; "even more vulgar now"; "more aggressive" (open-ended question, 1% of responses).
As of today, 7% of those surveyed say they are prepared to vote for LDPR. However, more than twice as many (18%) who say they might do so, which is even more true of young respondents (23% between 18 and 25). Voting for the Liberal Democrats is out the question for 67% of Russians. Interestingly, considerable numbers (12% to 18%) of adults who plan to vote for other large parties say they might vote for LDPR.
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Total |
If you vote in the State Duma elections in December this year, which of the following parties are you more likely to support? |
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United Russia |
KPRF |
LDPR |
SPS |
Yabloko |
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Question: "Are you likely to vote for LDPR in the next Duma elections, or not?" |
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Likely |
18 |
16 |
12 |
99 |
14 |
18 |
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Unlikely |
67 |
77 |
80 |
1 |
80 |
75 |
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Hard to answer |
15 |
7 |
8 |
0 |
5 |
7 |
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When asked exactly why they are likely or unlikely to vote for the Liberal Democrats, our respondents gave largely "symmetrical" answers concerning either their general impression of the party, their reactions of trust or mistrust, or their feelings about Zhirinovsky (Question: "Why are you likely (unlikely) to vote for the Zhirinovsky-led LDPR in the next Duma elections?").
- good feelings about the party and its leader: "I trust them"; "I like this party"; "the guy is alright, he's merry, funny, never boring"; "I like the leader"; "what Zhirinovsky says is always right" (open-ended question, 8% of responses);
- bad feelings about the party and its leader: "I distrust them"; "I dislike this party"; "all of them are gangsters"; "irresponsible people"; "the circus is gone, but the clowns remain"; "it's a party of adventurers"; "their leader Zhirinovsky provokes antipathy"; "Zhirinovsky's speeches are abnormal, he's a maniac" (open-ended question, 19% of responses).
Some people like the Liberal Democratic Party's program, while some don't:
- "Their politics are close to mine"; "our views coincide"; "I like LDPR's policy"; "the right ideas"
(open-ended question, 2% of responses);
- "I don't like their politics"; "I absolutely dislike their views on the governance of the country"; "their program doesn't suit me, it's not serious"; "I dislike fascist politics"
(open-ended question, 6% of responses).
Six percent of those saying they wouldn't vote for LDPR argue that it plays to the gallery instead of addressing the population's real needs:
- "I see no deeds, just talk"; "what have they done for us, what have they given us?"; "soapbox oratory, promises and nothing more"; "LDPR talks more than they do"
(responses to open-ended question).
Without showing a dislike for the party, another 6% say they are tired of politics:
- "I won't go vote"; "I'm not interested in politics"; "I trust none of the parties"; "I trust no one, they're all alike"; "there's no use in voting; family matters are more important to me"
(responses to open-ended question).
Those who say they might vote for LDPR sometimes argue that if this party comes to power, life would change for the better:
- "I hope life would change for the better"; "they will establish order"; "I love order, and he is the one who will establish it"
(open-ended question, 3% of responses).
However, poll findings show that only 10% of respondents share this opinion, whereas three times as many (28%) hold the opposite view, and 36% expect no changes at all. In comparison with our January poll, the percentage of Russians expecting negative change if LDPR comes to power has slightly grown (by 5%), and the percentage who believe nothing would change has decreased by the same amount:
Question: "If LDPR came into power, would it change the life of people like you for the better, for the worse, or not at all?"
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January, 2003 |
October, 2003 |
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Better |
8 |
10 |
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Wouldn't change |
41 |
36 |
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Worse |
23 |
28 |
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Hard to answer |
28 |
26 |
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In the focus groups, virtually all discussion participants agreed that their lives would change if Zhirinovsky came to power. Although they were able to specify changes, many had difficulty describing their emotional attitude towards them:
- "
Moderator: If LDPR came to power, would it change the life of people like you for the better, for the worse, or not at all?
Participant: Life will change radically, only it's not clear which way" (DFG, Samara).
`Establishing order' was often mentioned, and the DFG participants indicated they would welcome it. Some, however, think this would merely be the prologue to turning Russia into a totalitarian police state "like in the past", or even worse:
- "
Moderator: If LDPR came to power, would it change the life of people like you for the better, for the worse, or not at all?
Participant: I think life would change for the better in a certain respect. There would be less crime, and the Chechnya issue would be solved in some way or another. But on the whole, it will really be a throwback to Stalin times" (DFG, Novosibirsk).
- "
Moderator: Would anyone like to add anything?
1st female participant: I think they will introduce capital punishment.
2nd participant: They will execute people extra-judicially, and that's it.
1st female participant: They wouldn't give a damn for all the ratified international laws. In fact, he doesn't give a crap about the rest of the world. Russia would isolate itself from the world out there, like it did before" (DFG, Novosibirsk).
- "There would be discipline. That much is certain. We'll be marching in quick time and implementing the party's instructions"
(DFG, Novosibirsk).
While 17% of those surveyed (and, predictably, 79% of LDPR backers) believe the goals of LDPR meet the interests of people like themselves, 57% hold the opposite opinion. Naturally, people who say their interests are not in line with LDPR's goals tend to expect negative changes if the party comes to power.
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Total |
Do the goals of LDPR meet the interests of people like you, or not? |
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Yes |
No |
hard to answer |
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Question: "If LDPR came into power, would it change the life of people like you for the better, for the worse, or not at all?" |
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Better |
10 |
43 |
1 |
6 |
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Wouldn't change |
36 |
28 |
37 |
39 |
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Worse |
28 |
5 |
43 |
11 |
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Hard to answer |
26 |
25 |
18 |
44 |
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When asked which of the parties in Russia is closest to LDPR in terms of its political views, 4% of respondents named United Russia, 5% KPRF, 6% SPS, and another 6% Yabloko. Farthest from LDPR, according to 19% of Russians, is KPRF, followed by United Russia and Yabloko (7% each), and SPS (6%).
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Closest to LDPR |
Farthest from LDPR |
Delta |
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United Russia |
4 |
7 |
-3 |
|
KPRF |
5 |
19 |
-14 |
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SPS |
6 |
6 |
0 |
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Yabloko |
6 |
7 |
-1 |
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In the Novosibirsk focus group, one female participant suggested that, while KPRF is far from LDPR in terms of its political views, their methods are similar:
- "
Moderator: Which of the parties in Russia is closest to LDPR in terms of its political views?
Female participant: The Communist Party.
Moderator: Why do you think so?
Female participant: Well, their methods are alike. The ideals may differ, but the methods are similar" (DFG, Novosibirsk).
The respondents' opinions were divided almost equally on the issue of how LDPR relates to the authorities. 37% believe LDPR supports the current government, while 33% think it opposes it. The former point of view is more often voiced by resourceful groups, such as well-educated (53%) and high-income citizens (48%), whereas poorer people are inclined to hold the latter view (39%). Interestingly, the majority of LDPR voters (59%) are convinced their party is loyal to the present government, while half as many (31%) regard it as an opposition party.
However, focus group discussions show that most people consider LDPR's opposition to be a mere pose, rather than a substantial disagreement with the Kremlin. Nobody said the Liberal Democrats oppose the authorities on any matters of principal. Respondents who insisted that LDPR is an opposition party stressed that this stance is window-dressing:
- "
Moderator: Do you think LDPR supports the powers that be or opposes them?
1st participant: They are on good terms.
2nd female participant: What opposition are you talking about!
3rd participant: On the surface, they act like they're in the opposition, but in essence, they aren't" (DFG, Moscow).
According to the dominant opinion in DFG sessions, LDPR may have been an opposition party in the past, but today it prefers to be friends with the authorities. In the poll, 1% of respondents said LDPR has grown more Kremlin-friendly over the past ten years:
- "They became more loyal to the government"; "he used to be an oppositionist, but now he's loyal"; "they now support the powers that be almost absolutely"
(open-ended question, 1% of responses).
- "
1st participant: Zhirinovsky is loyal to the government party, he supports their main decisions.
Moderator: Any disagreement?
2nd participant: I think his party always opposed the government. It showed through in every statement. But since Putin's election, they became quiet.
Moderator: What do you think is the reason?
3rd participant: It's simply disadvantageous to go against the Kremlin" (DFG, Novosibirsk).
- "
Moderator: What is the relationship between LDPR and the Kremlin like?
1st participant: It's alright.
2nd female participant: They're trying to be friends" (DFG, Samara).
- "
Moderator: What is the relationship between LDPR and the Kremlin like? Is it an opposition party, or not?
Participant: I'd say this party is not `with', but `under' the Kremlin. With Zhirinovsky crawling on his belly the way he does, they can't be considered an independent force" (DFG, Samara).
As for LDPR's chances in the upcoming Duma election, 36% of Russians expect it to receive about as many votes as last time. 13% of respondents think it will receive more votes than last time, and 23% think it will receive fewer votes:
Question: "Speaking about the upcoming Duma elections, would you say LDPR will receive more votes, fewer votes, or about as many votes as in the last Duma elections?"
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January, 2003 |
October, 2003 |
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More |
9 |
13 |
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Same as last time |
37 |
36 |
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Less |
22 |
23 |
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Hard to answer |
32 |
28 |
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Many respondents think LDPR is going to garner fewer votes than before because, as focus group participants stress, the party's "golden age" has irrevocably gone with the social and political changes in the country. Russians no longer need a rebellious leader; they need politicians who can restore stability and peace. With priorities changed, the 1993 triumph of LDPR can't be expected to return:
- "A fire dying out is a nice metaphor. They used to be a rather strong party, and they were seen and heard all the time and everywhere. Now, you hear less and less from them. In fact, it's only Zhirinovsky who keeps showing up on entertainment programs, and nothing more. Actually, I don't take them serious as a party at all. Because this party is on its last legs... I think this party has outlived its relevance"
(DFG, Novosibirsk).
As for Zhirinovsky himself, DFG participants don't feel he is striving for power. Instead, his goal is to keep his `five-percent niche' and peacefully serve his time:
- "
Moderator: What do you think are the goals this party pursues?
Participant: Quite simply, just staying in the Duma all the time and picking up their crumbs, on and on.
Moderator: You mean they want to come to power?
Participant: No, that's what they don't want. They had 45% before, and nothing changed. They just want to wipe up some gravy, to keep their little five-percent-niche..." (DFG, Moscow).
However, as shown by this and previous polls, LDPR today is capable of more than just overcoming the notorious five-percent barrier.
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