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Nation-wide home interviews conducted December 10-11 2005 in 100 residencies in 44 regions. A sample size of 1500 respondents. Additional polls of the Moscow population, with a sample of 600 respondents. The margin of error does not exceed 3,6%.
Russian public opinion regarding Ukraine is deteriorating, and difficulties are appearing at the interstate levels that affect mass consciousness. The number of those who express positive opinions about Ukraine is decreasing. At the beginning of December last year, 68% of respondents said they felt as positively about Ukraine as they did earlier. At the end of January of this year, following the "Orange revolution" the figure was 60%. Today, this figure is only 49%. At the same time, the share of those who cite a deteriorating attitude toward Ukraine is increasing (14% in December of last year, 17% in January of this year, and 29% according to our latest poll data). We should note that a very low percentage of people (5%) discuss a long-standing dislike of Ukraine, and the number of those who say their attitude has improved is even smaller at 2%.
About half of Russians (54%) believe that relations between Russia and Ukraine are bad; in January of 2005 one-fifth (21%) of polled respondents held this opinion. Today, 26% of Russians contend that Russian-Ukraine relations as good. In January of 2005, this opinion was expressed by almost twice as many respondents- 49%.
Many people (67%) share the opinion that there are serious disagreements between Russia and Ukraine, while in March of this year 48% held this opinion. At the same time, today only 12% of those surveyed expressed the opposite opinion (in March it was 24%).
Answering an open-ended question about these issues, respondents were more likely to discuss economic problems (50%), mostly those related to oil and gas deliveries to Ukraine (47%). This situation has changed radically: during a poll conducted in March of 2005 such problems were cited by only 9% of respondents. Other problems were mentioned with similar frequency: territorial disputes (7% – in March and 4% – in December), a question related to the Black Sea Fleet and Sevastopol, as well as Ukraine's desire to become closer to the West. Also cited was the pressure put on the Russian speaking population.
Two-thirds of Russians (68%) think that Ukraine wants to become closer to the Western countries rather than Russia, while 13% hold the opposite opinion. Here there are noticeable changes too. At the end of January 2005, after so the "Orange revolution," 49% of Russians shared this opinion, while the opposite view was expressed by 27% of respondents.
Discussing Russia's policy toward Ukraine, the majority of respondents (60%) say that it is oriented toward strengthening relations, while the opposite opinion was held by 18% of those surveyed; 22% were unable to answer.
Notably, these tendencies are most visible in Moscow. Muscovites are markedly more likely to cite a deteriorating attitude toward Ukraine than Russians in general (47% against 29% of the total sample). They also were more likely to categorize Russian-Ukraine relations as bad (75% against 54% of the total sample). An opinion that Ukraine wants become closer to the Western countries rather than to Russia was expressed by 86% of Muscovites (against 68% of Russians). Serious difficulties between Russia and Ukraine were mentioned by 81% of Muscovites (against 67% of Russians in general).
Irina Shmerlina
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