24.05.2001, Bavin P.
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Given this strong wish for integration with Ukraine, it is not surprising that Russians are relatively well informed about the political crisis in that country: 60% of those surveyed are aware of it, and nearly two-thirds of these respondents are worried about events in Ukraine. The regional experts show still more concern, and even those representatives of the regional elite who regard Ukraine as a foreign state consider its internal political crisis to be of great importance for Russia:
- "We have become absolutely strange to each other, two different states. This is a matter of concern for Russia, of course. That country is our nearest neighbor, and Russia's peace depends on Ukraine's inner politics"
(expert, Kaliningrad).
Notwithstanding their concern, Russian citizens think it is undesirable for Russia to interfere in the conflict: half of respondents (51%), above all young people and university graduates, believe that Russia should stand aside. As for the regional experts, three-fourths of them think Russia should remain neutral. Every fourth expert thinks Russia should support President Kuchma, while the percentage of those advocating support for the Ukrainian opposition is negligible. As far as ordinary Russians are concerned, the proportion is different: 16% believe Russia should support the opposition, and 12% say we should back the president. This is typical of all societal groups (The only exception is big city dwellers (18 and 15% each).), probably because Leonid Kuchma personally is no big force with Russians. Only 13% of respondents say they trust him, while 41% – three times as many – say they don't trust him (47% found it hard to answer). During focus group discussions, respondents often referred to Kuchma without much respect as a politician whose policy towards Russia is inconsistent.
- "
1st DFG participant: – He is a mediocre personality. He acts according to circumstances. He has no clear guideline of his own, he does what is opportune for the time being, he floats with the stream.
- 2nd DFG participant: – He knows what is good for him.
- 1st DFG participant: – When he wanted to win the elections, he is a friend of Russians, but as soon as he won the elections, he turned his back to us" (DFG, Samara).
However, there are two kinds of reasoning behind the 'keep neutral' attitude. Some understand that Ukraine is an independent state in whose domestic affairs no one is supposed to interfere.
- "I think Russia should take an indifferent stance. First, it is their domestic affair, indeed. Second, Ukraine is a sovereign state from the point of view of international law, so interfering and joining one of the conflicting parties would be not quite correct, I believe"
(expert, Yekaterinburg).
- "
Expert: – To my mind Russia should not interfere.
Interviewer: – But how can it shape relations then?
Expert: – I think it is a domestic affair of that nation, whom they elect to be in charge. And Russia should shape its relations with Ukraine irrespective of the Ukrainian people's choice, it has to accept it. Of course, it is not irrelevant who is in charge there, because it will no doubt influence our relations" (expert, Ryazan).
- "
Moderator: – Under these circumstances, do you think our country should interfere&63
Galina: – It shouldn't.
Natalya: – Ukraine is an independent state. Things would be different if we were together...
Alexandr: – Let them come to terms with each other. If they need help and apply to us, Russia will help.
Moderator: – Suppose forces come to power in Ukraine that oppose unification with Russia. Who is going to apply to us for help&63
Natalya: – A foreign country is not a place you may nip into. We have to watch from aside. We are two different states" (DFG, Samara).
At the same time, respondents seem to fear that Russia's meddling in other country's domestic conflicts might lead to international complications, as in Soviet Union times.
- "No interference, it's clear. Because they are pretty sure to come to terms with each other. If we meddle, no matter on whose side, we will be the guilty ones in the end"
(DFG, Novosibirsk).
- "
Moderator: – What do you think of the situation in Ukraine? Does it worry you?
DFG participant: – It doesn't worry me at all. Because you regard it as some pretty distant thing. It's not worth interfering. You can do politics, but not intervene like we did in Chechnya..." (DFG, Novosibirsk).
This is a point of view many experts share:
- "No matter whom we support, the winning or the losing side, they will both remember our interfering. Both sides, our ally as well as our adversary, will keep a long memory of this interference"
(expert, St. Petersburg).
The non-interference attitude is more popular with respondents who think Ukraine is seeking a rapprochement with the West (56%). Among those who believe that Ukraine seeks closer relations with Russia, there are as many advocates of supporting President Kuchma as for supporting the opposition (19% each).
Question: "The Ukrainian opposition demands the resignation of president Leonid Kuchma. What do you think Russia's stand should be on this issue: should it support Kuchma, support the Ukrainian opposition, or should it stand aside and not interfere in the situation?"
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All |
Ukraine seeks rapprochement with... |
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Russia |
The West |
hard to answer |
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Percentage of groups |
100 |
30 |
45 |
25 |
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Firmly support Kuchma |
4 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
|
Support Kuchma |
8 |
12 |
7 |
5 |
|
Stand aside |
51 |
46 |
56 |
49 |
|
Support the Ukrainian opposition |
11 |
14 |
10 |
10 |
|
Firmly support the Ukrainian opposition |
5 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
|
Hard to answer |
21 |
16 |
19 |
31 |
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When discussing the distribution of opinions among the representatives of the regional elite, one has to bear in mind that many of them oppose overt interference by Russia, but advocate supporting pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. President Leonid Kuchma is believed by some to be such a force:
- "Officially, we can't, of course, interfere in the domestic affairs of a foreign country, which is a sovereign state. But my unofficial point of view is that we should support Kuchma, because he is a sober politician, a Russia-oriented man, so to speak, and of course it is not irrelevant for us who the leader is of a country like Ukraine"
(expert, Yekaterinburg).
Others favor the opposition, their reasoning being fairly Machiavellian:
- "
Expert: – Russia should support the opposition... Of course one must keep neutral, we shouldn't say we are going to interfere in another country's affairs, but still we should influence the situation in all possible ways.
Interviewer: – And why do you think Russia should support the opposition?
Expert: – Even if for no better reason than that Kuchma might just become Russia-friendlier in face of impeachment threat" (expert, Yekaterinburg).
- "If the question is "who is to be supported?", then it's the one who strengthens ties with Russia"
(expert, Kaluga).
Some took the range of political options suggested by the question as a chance to draw a comparison between Russia and the United States:
- "If he makes moves that are good for Russia, then we should support him. If he makes moves that are bad for Russia, then why should we support him? We should support pro-Russia-oriented politicians. Just like the Americans support pro-US-oriented politicians all over the world and crush with all their might, even militarily, politicians that are anti-US-oriented. We don't say it aloud, but they crush Lebanon, Cuba, Iraq, Iran, etc., etc. just as well. They crush everyone whose attitude is anti-American. We should behave the same way"
(expert, Stavropol).
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