03.04.2003, Yakusheva T.
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Considering the war between the USA and Iraq, most Russians are likely to show sympathy for Iraq (58%). Only 3% of those surveyed today are sympathetic towards America. About one-third of those surveyed (35%) sympathize with neither Iraq nor the USA. Before the beginning of the war this position dominated, but today the prevailing position is on the side of Iraq. The number of those who sympathize with the U.S. has decreased by more than half. Thus, many Russians have changed their stance since the beginning of the war.
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Question: "In the event of a war between the U.S. and Iraq, would you side with the U.S., Iraq, or neither?" (February 1 – 2, 2003) |
Question: "Speaking of your personal sympathies, do you side with the U.S., Iraq, or neither side?" (March 29 – 30, 2003) |
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The U.S. |
10 |
3 |
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Neither |
50 |
35 |
|
Iraq |
32 |
58 |
|
Hard to answer |
8 |
5 |
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As our few last polls showed, Russian sympathies towards Iraq are mostly based on their negative attitude towards U.S. foreign policy. Evidently, the recent increase in the number who support Iraq is associated with reproach for the U.S. aggression against this country.
Respondents were asked to explain US motivations in its war against Iraq. The overwhelming majority of Russians consider the real goals of the military operation to be unworthy, and even dirty. More than half of those surveyed are convinced the background of the war is selfish economic interests. When respondents were discussing this issue, the opinion that America wants to capture the oil in Iraq was mentioned most often (58%).
- "Bush wants to become the owner of oil wells in Iraq"; "mostly because of oil: the Americans have a lack of oil, and therefore they decided to capture oil in Iraq"; "America wants to take in hands oil in Iraq"
(open-ended question).
Some respondents think the American authorities want to strengthen the American economy through the war against Iraq (9%).
- "To improve the US dollar rate"; "to improve the economic situation at the account of Iraq"
(open-ended question).
According to 9% of respondents, the war is needed by the USA to strengthen its position as the only superpower in the world. Five percent of respondents think the United States wants to demonstrate its power and superiority over other countries.
- "They want to dominate the world"; "the main American aim is world domination";
(open-ended question).
Another motivation mentioned by five percent of respondents is a desire to conquer the territory of Iraq.
- "To conquer the country and declare it as one more American state"; "subjection of the country"
(open-ended question).
Two percent of respondents mentioned "testing of U.S. military power" as one more motivation. At the same time, some respondents (1%) think the Americans unleashed the war in Iraq "to get closer to the Russian borders".
- "It seems to me that they want have the whip hand over us"
(DFG, Samara).
Only a small number of those surveyed mentioned the official explanations declared by the American authorities: "liberating them from Saddam Hussein's regime" (2%), the struggle against international terrorism (1%), and the disarmament of Iraq (less than 1%).
Twenty-three percent of respondents think the U.S. and its allies are fighting successfully in Iraq, while the majority of those surveyed (52%) hold the opposite opinion. As we can see from the table below, those respondents who sympathize with Iraq are most likely to consider U.S. actions to be unsuccessful. At the same time, among those who side with the USA, the opposite opinion predominates. Thus, respondents are inclined to hold the position, "the wish is father to the thought".
Question: "Would you rate current U.S. military actions in Iraq as successful or unsuccessful?"
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Total |
Speaking of your personal sympathies, do you side with the U.S., Iraq, or neither side? |
|
The U.S. |
neither |
Iraq |
hard to answer |
|
Successful |
23 |
55 |
28 |
19 |
15 |
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Unsuccessful |
52 |
25 |
44 |
60 |
29 |
|
Hard to answer |
25 |
21 |
28 |
21 |
56 |
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The majority of Russians (70%) are convinced that the Iraqi forces put up stronger resistance than expected by the USA. As we can see form the table below, respondents who hold this opinion are more likely to consider the current U.S. military actions in Iraq to be unsuccessful. Those who think it has been as strong as anticipated find U.S. military actions to be successful.
Question: "Would you rate current U.S. military actions in Iraq as successful or unsuccessful?"
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Total |
Do you think the Iraqi forces put up stronger or weaker resistance than expected by the U.S.-led coalition forces, or has it been as stronger as anticipated? |
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stronger than expected |
as expected |
weaker than expected |
hard to answer |
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Successful |
23 |
19 |
44 |
45 |
22 |
|
Unsuccessful |
52 |
65 |
24 |
34 |
17 |
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Hard to answer |
25 |
16 |
32 |
21 |
61 |
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Many discussion group participants said the USA didn't expect the Iraqi forces put up serious resistance. Their satisfaction over this was clear in the dialogues. Any failure of U.S. forces in Iraq is interpreted by Russians as proof of the invalidity of America's ambitions for world domination.
- "Only one point console1s me: it seems the Americans' vanity will be hurt. I think the war will last a very long time, because it takes some doing, and it is not easy for them at all. Saddam Hussein is still the Iraqi leader and has already been so for a very long time. He evidently wants to hold his post, so he won't surrender and has an ace up his sleeve".
(DFG, Moscow).
- "
First participant: Bush seems to be at a standstill.
Second participant: Yes, you are right.
Third participant: They expected a blitzkrieg.
Second participant: Right, but recently he said: "We are going to continue it".
Fourth participant: They didn't expect such strong resistance" (DFG, Moscow).
As we can see, many discussion group participants think the USA cannot hope for a quick victory, and 58% of poll respondents think so as well. Only 16% of those surveyed believe the war in Iraq will end soon.
As shown in the table below, the opinion that the war will be long is more popular among those who think Iraqi resistance is stronger than expected by the Americans. At the same time, we should note that this opinion is also widespread among those who think Iraqi resistance is as strong as anticipated, or even weaker. Evidently these respondents think America can't win the war quickly, in spite of what it hopes.
Question: "Some people believe the war in Iraq will end soon, while others think it will last a long time. Which of these two views is closest to your own?"
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Total |
Do you think the Iraqi forces put up stronger or weaker resistance than expected by the U.S.-led coalition forces, or has it been as stronger as anticipated? |
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stronger than expected |
as expected |
weaker than expected |
hard to answer |
|
First |
16 |
15 |
24 |
34 |
11 |
|
Second |
58 |
66 |
45 |
47 |
34 |
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Hard to answer |
25 |
18 |
31 |
19 |
55 |
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When discussion group participants noted that the war might last for a long time, they mentioned the war in Vietnam, Chechnya, and World War II. In the last example, the Americans were compared with the Nazis.
- "They often recall Vietnam, and I think this war in Iraq will be the same case for them"
(DFG, Moscow).
- "So, I watch the situation. I believe the Iraqis will win – they must do so. These bold-faced Americans are the same as the Nazis ... The same as it was in Russia, when the fascists were dancing near Moscow"
(DFG, Novosibirsk).
- "They planned a blitzkrieg like Nazi Germany did, but that was a failure. As a matter of fact, they want to skirt these cities, because it is impossible to them by storm. Television showed Iraqi prisoners, but there were no military men among them, only civilians"
(DFG, Samara).
- "The Chechen war is still unfinished... our state is a great power, but as it turned out, we are unable to crush a small country like Chechnya"
(DFG, Moscow).
- "This is the same as the war in Chechnya – we achieved nothing"
(DFG, Samara).
All the DFG participants' answers contain a common notion that military superiority doesn't mean victory is guaranteed. Every third respondent (33%) thinks America will lose the war, while another 35% believe the USA will triumph. The number who found it difficult to forecast the outcome is quite large – 33%.
This distribution of answers shows that Russians consider Iraq is not a weak nation. At the same time we should note that in Russian opinion, the line between success and failure for America is very thin. If a U.S. victory is associated by Russians with total control over the territory of Iraq, then possible failure is treated more widely. As a matter of fact, any U.S. movement back from its primary plans or just one failure is considering the first move towards losing the war.
- "I think he will do it all: sacrifices Iraqi lives to show his fist to America"
(DFG, Moscow).
- "They probably will come through, but at a price... And this tension is increasing in the world. The conflict is becoming deep and nobody knows the result. I am afraid this conflict will enlarge greatly over the world"
(DFG, Samara).
Those respondents who think the war in Iraq will last a long time are most likely to think America will lose. Speaking about U.S. goals, many respondents named its desire to dominate the world. These respondents think the "failure" of the American blitzkrieg is evidence that it is not all-powerful.
Question: "Do you believe the U.S.-led coalition forces will win or lose the Iraqi war?"
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Total |
Question: "Some people believe the war in Iraq will end soon, while others think it will last a long time. Which of these two views is closest to your own?" |
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First |
second |
hard to answer |
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Win |
35 |
58 |
34 |
22 |
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Lose |
33 |
23 |
42 |
18 |
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Hard to answer |
33 |
19 |
24 |
60 |
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Respondents were asked an open-ended question on why they think America win or lose the Iraq war. Those who believe the USA will triumph spoke mostly about its economic and political advantages over Iraq (30%).
- "The giant is always the winner"; "they've declared themselves the most powerful country in the world, and this seems to be so"; "they have modern weapons"; "the USA has absolute military superiority over Iraq";
(open-ended question).
Some Russians who think Iraq will win noted that they are defending their own territory, which means they have a moral advantage (5%).
- "Good is always stronger than evil"; "this war is aggressive, and such wars usually end well for those who are defending, in this case Iraq";
(open-ended question).
Moreover, some respondents (4%) said the Iraqis have been drawn together against the U.S. aggression and are ready for partisan war if necessary (2%). Some respondents (3%) consider the so-called "Islamic factor," which includes a fanatic readiness to die.
- "The people's will is impossible to break, they will turn the Americans back, even if it takes 10 years"; "they will defend themselves to the last breath"; "the Iraqis are a strong people"
(open-ended question).
- "Muslims are so fanatic"; "Islam gives people a sustaining power, and they are fighting for their national independence"
(open-ended question).
- "Even if America reaches all its goals, and I am uncertain of the, Iraqi will be quiet for a while, and then partisan war might begin. I think they won't resigned to their fate. They will defend their motherland"
(DFG, Samara).
When speaking about U.S. solders, discussion group participants noted their low morale compared with Iraqi forces, their habits of comfort, and that they are poorly prepared.
- "The unpleasant side of the Americans, because they are acting as aggressors in this case, and they look unattractive: dark glasses, a special flexible pipe for water fixed to their backpacks, and so on. This looks like someone going to war not for an idea, but to feel comfortable in everything."
(DFG, Novosibirsk).
Iraq has another advantage over America: it enjoys international antiwar support (7%). Though this support is not military, it nevertheless puts pressure on the USA.
- "The word is against America today"; " the whole world is for Iraq, even many Americans"; "many countries are against it: France, Germany, Russia and others spoke against the war"
(open-ended question).
Thus, almost all forecasts on the U.S. losing the war are based on a conviction that Iraq has a moral advantage. Arguments for an American triumph are associated mostly with financial and military superiority. This means that intensity of faith in justice and moral motivations are seen as being just as important as military power. Many Russians associate the war between America and Iraq with a struggle of brute military force against moral courage.
- "If consider World War II, the fascists had great military superiority over Russia, but we held out in the struggle. In today's case, Iraq has a moral advantage. The Iraqis know it and have the courage to win"
(DFG, Novosibirsk).
We can suppose from this vision of the situation that even if America succeeds in its military efforts, many people think this will not be Iraq's loss, because according to their logic, military victory must be strengthened by moral satisfaction, which in this case is denied to the Americans.
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